Decision-making for Coastal Adaptation: Sustaining Coastal Salt Marshes for Ecosystem Services along the Jersey Shore

The MidAtlantic USA coast, as we see it today in 2013, reflects a long history of human social decisions resulting in a varied landscape of natural and engineered dunes and beaches, saltwater marshes, and coastal protection structures. A key question that is of widespread and urgent interest is what is the potential of that landscape to buffer human settlement from the extreme weather-related events? While the question of ocean beaches and associated dune systems are fascinating, our focus in this proposed research is to clarify the role of 'back-bay' tidal salt marshes and adjacent maritime forests as natural or green infrastructure (i.e., to serve the role of buffering the built environment from hazards). Using SuperStorm sandy as a case study, we propose to rigorously assess and quantify the degree to which these ecological systems moderated the impact of Sandy-related storm surge on coastal homes and community infrastructure. We propose to investigate the efficacy of different management approaches designed to promote the long term sustainability of coastal marshes under rising sea levels within the context of the constraints imposed by a closely coupled social-ecological system.

Likewise, we propose to examine the costs associated with maintaining coastal marshes under future sea level rise in concert with their continued ability to provide highly valued ecosystem services. Our broader objective is to provide coastal decision-makers with the information needed to make choices concerning the maintenance and/or restoration of green infrastructure within coastal communities. We will develop and pilot-test a process to aid coastal communities and decision-makers in integrating scientific information on the predicted outcomes of 'green infrastructure' practices vs. a no intervention alternative (the status quo) with an understanding of the value tradeoffs involved into coastal planning.

The project will benefit from the extensive work that the project partners are already

engaged with concerning promoting resilient coastal communities that can adapt to the

impacts of hazards and climate change. The project team includes a core group of academic researchers from the Rutgers University School of Environmental & Biological Science and the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, along with on-the-ground partners, namely the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve (JCNERR), the Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP), and the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary (PDE). These partners have established coastal marsh monitoring programs and extensive networks of involvement in the local communities and with coastal decision-makers. The proposed project will leverage extensive ongoing in situ and remotely sensed monitoring studies to characterize salt marsh integrity as well as a companion effort to map various sea level rise scenarios and model expected changes to coastal wetlands.

The proposed project targets Climate and Societal Interactions (CSI)-Coastal and Ocean

Climate Application (COCA): Ecosystem Services for a Resilient Coast (NOAA-OAR-CPO-2014- 2003692 (CFDA): 11.431). With the objective of promoting resilient coastal communities that can adapt to the impacts of hazards and climate change, the proposed project also addresses several of NOAA's long term goals as expressed in NOAA's Next-Generation Strategic Plan, namely 1) Climate Adaptation and Mitigation: An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts; 2) Weather-Ready Nation: Society is prepared for and responds to weather-related events; and 3) Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies: Coastal and Great Lakes communities are environmentally and economically sustainable.