A Blended Deep Learning Approach for Predicting User Intended Actions

Fei Tan, Zhi Wei, Jun He, Xiang Wu, Bo Peng, Haoran Liu, Zhenyu Yan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

User intended actions are widely seen in many areas. Forecasting these actions and taking proactive measures to optimize business outcome is a crucial step towards sustaining the steady business growth. In this work, we focus on predicting attrition, which is one of typical user intended actions. Conventional attrition predictive modeling strategies suffer a few inherent drawbacks. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel end-to-end learning scheme to keep track of the evolution of attrition patterns for the predictive modeling. It integrates user activity logs, dynamic and static user profiles based on multi-path learning. It exploits historical user records by establishing a decaying multi-snapshot technique. And finally it employs the precedent user intentions via guiding them to the subsequent learning procedure. As a result, it addresses all disadvantages of conventional methods. We evaluate our methodology on two public data repositories and one private user usage dataset provided by Adobe Creative Cloud. The extensive experiments demonstrate that it can offer the appealing performance in comparison with several existing approaches as rated by different popular metrics. Furthermore, we introduce an advanced interpretation and visualization strategy to effectively characterize the periodicity of user activity logs. It can help to pinpoint important factors that are critical to user attrition and retention and thus suggests actionable improvement targets for business practice. Our work will provide useful insights into the prediction and elucidation of other user intended actions as well.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2018 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2018
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages487-496
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781538691588
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 27 2018
Event18th IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2018 - Singapore, Singapore
Duration: Nov 17 2018Nov 20 2018

Publication series

NameProceedings - IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM
Volume2018-November

Conference

Conference18th IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2018
CountrySingapore
CitySingapore
Period11/17/1811/20/18

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Engineering(all)

Keywords

  • Customer attrition
  • Interpretation
  • Predictive modeling

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