TY - JOUR
T1 - Crop production and water quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming
T2 - Plant responses and management options in the mid-Atlantic region
AU - Tijjani, Sadiya B.
AU - Qi, Junyu
AU - Giri, Subhasis
AU - Lathrop, Richard
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023
PY - 2024/1/10
Y1 - 2024/1/10
N2 - The 2015 “Paris Agreement” aims to limit the global average temperature rise to significantly less than 2 °C, preferably within 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. A multitude of studies have focused on evaluating how different sectors respond to such levels of warming. Nonetheless, most of these studies fail to provide a clear roadmap to mitigate these impacts. A case in point is the anticipated decline in corn and soybean yields and increased phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) discharge into water bodies, a trend linked to past agricultural practices and climate change. In this research, we employ a novel assessment of how existing management practices under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (GW) scenarios can affect nutrient availability in time and space as well as crop yield in a typical agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Region, specifically the Upper Maurice River Watershed (UMRW) in New Jersey. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with multiple Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, we found that compared to 1.5 °C, a 2 °C GW scenario would exacerbate runoff, leading to amplified nutrient leaching. These losses decrease nutrient availability during the crop growing season. Moreover, a mismatch between the timing of fertilizer application and crop nutrient absorption caused nutrient-related stress. This nutrient and anticipated temperature stress resulted in a more significant decrease in crop yields under the 2 °C GW scenario than the 1.5 °C scenario. We have designed a management scenario to reduce future nutrient losses while increasing crop yields. The strategy involves altering the timing of planting/harvesting and the fertilizer application rate in response to a warming climate. This approach is projected to increase corn and soybean yields by +39 % (+21 %) and +2 % (+17 %), respectively, under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) GW scenario for the RCP-4.5 pathway. Simultaneously, it is expected to decrease the N and P loads at 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) GW. Comparable projections are also observed under the RCP-8.5 pathway.
AB - The 2015 “Paris Agreement” aims to limit the global average temperature rise to significantly less than 2 °C, preferably within 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. A multitude of studies have focused on evaluating how different sectors respond to such levels of warming. Nonetheless, most of these studies fail to provide a clear roadmap to mitigate these impacts. A case in point is the anticipated decline in corn and soybean yields and increased phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) discharge into water bodies, a trend linked to past agricultural practices and climate change. In this research, we employ a novel assessment of how existing management practices under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (GW) scenarios can affect nutrient availability in time and space as well as crop yield in a typical agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Region, specifically the Upper Maurice River Watershed (UMRW) in New Jersey. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with multiple Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, we found that compared to 1.5 °C, a 2 °C GW scenario would exacerbate runoff, leading to amplified nutrient leaching. These losses decrease nutrient availability during the crop growing season. Moreover, a mismatch between the timing of fertilizer application and crop nutrient absorption caused nutrient-related stress. This nutrient and anticipated temperature stress resulted in a more significant decrease in crop yields under the 2 °C GW scenario than the 1.5 °C scenario. We have designed a management scenario to reduce future nutrient losses while increasing crop yields. The strategy involves altering the timing of planting/harvesting and the fertilizer application rate in response to a warming climate. This approach is projected to increase corn and soybean yields by +39 % (+21 %) and +2 % (+17 %), respectively, under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) GW scenario for the RCP-4.5 pathway. Simultaneously, it is expected to decrease the N and P loads at 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) GW. Comparable projections are also observed under the RCP-8.5 pathway.
KW - CO emission
KW - Crop yield
KW - Global warming
KW - Nutrient leaching
KW - Water quality
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85175474267&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85175474267&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167874
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167874
M3 - Article
C2 - 37858825
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 907
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
M1 - 167874
ER -