Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty

TY - JOUR

T1 - Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty

AU - Selçuklu, Saltuk Buğra

AU - Coit, D. W.

AU - Felder, F. A.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was partially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation [grant number CMMI 1825225 ]. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

PY - 2023/2

Y1 - 2023/2

N2 - Türkiye is the fastest-growing energy market among the OECD members, and it is among the world's top 20 energy-consuming countries. The existing electricity generation capacity of Türkiye has doubled in the last decade. Planning the electricity generation portfolio is an important problem for the decision and policymakers, especially in terms of sustainable development, and it is crucial for Türkiye's economic growth. In this paper, we study the long-term electricity generation portfolio optimization while considering the uncertainties. An optimization algorithm is modeled and solved while integrating uncertainty information as part of the Pareto concept. The results of three scenarios are presented and policy implications are discussed and compared with similar Turkish case studies and government projections. The results suggest that it is less risky to minimize emissions, thus, more likely to be sustainable than to minimize costs. Comparisons among solutions show that nuclear is a substitute for renewable resources and comparisons among other studies show that natural gas and hydro are substitutes for each other. Multi-objective formulation reveals that the government's scenario provides favorable results in business-as-usual conditions; however, nuclear and renewable investments that the government has planned are too ambitious to keep costs lower while decreasing emissions.

AB - Türkiye is the fastest-growing energy market among the OECD members, and it is among the world's top 20 energy-consuming countries. The existing electricity generation capacity of Türkiye has doubled in the last decade. Planning the electricity generation portfolio is an important problem for the decision and policymakers, especially in terms of sustainable development, and it is crucial for Türkiye's economic growth. In this paper, we study the long-term electricity generation portfolio optimization while considering the uncertainties. An optimization algorithm is modeled and solved while integrating uncertainty information as part of the Pareto concept. The results of three scenarios are presented and policy implications are discussed and compared with similar Turkish case studies and government projections. The results suggest that it is less risky to minimize emissions, thus, more likely to be sustainable than to minimize costs. Comparisons among solutions show that nuclear is a substitute for renewable resources and comparisons among other studies show that natural gas and hydro are substitutes for each other. Multi-objective formulation reveals that the government's scenario provides favorable results in business-as-usual conditions; however, nuclear and renewable investments that the government has planned are too ambitious to keep costs lower while decreasing emissions.

KW - Electricity generation portfolio

KW - Generation expansion planning

KW - Türkiye

KW - Uncertainty

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85145721598&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85145721598&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113393

DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113393

M3 - Article

SN - 0301-4215

VL - 173

JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

M1 - 113393

ER -