Abstract
Increasing energy demand and the associated environmental pressures have ignited the Chinese government's concerns regarding energy conservation. Using provincial-level panel data covering the period of 2000–2015, this study first identifies the drivers of energy intensity across China's regions, employing a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity. Based on the estimation results and scenario analysis, this study forecasts the possible energy conservation potential at the regional level by 2030. The panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator provides similar estimation results for the three regions: economic structure and urbanization rate are the deterministic factors increasing energy intensity, while R&D investment and relative energy price reduce it. The results of scenario analysis indicate that, under the advanced scenario, the energy conservation potential in the eastern, central, and western regions in 2030 will be 1,209.53 million tons of coal equivalent (tce), 664.23 million tce, and 774.48 million tce, respectively. At the national level, the advanced scenario can save 2,648.24 million tce of energy consumption by 2030, accounting for 43.3% of the energy demand under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Finally, these findings offer several targeted policy suggestions for reducing energy intensity and promoting energy conservation potential at the national and regional levels.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 782-795 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Energy |
| Volume | 155 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jul 15 2018 |
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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Mechanical Engineering
- Pollution
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering
- Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
- Building and Construction
- Civil and Structural Engineering
Keywords
- China
- Energy conservation potential
- Energy intensity
- Regional analysis
Cite this
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Energy intensity and energy conservation potential in China : A regional comparison perspective. / Dong, Kangyin; Sun, Renjin; Hochman, Gal; Li, Hui.
In: Energy, Vol. 155, 15.07.2018, p. 782-795.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Energy intensity and energy conservation potential in China
T2 - A regional comparison perspective
AU - Dong, Kangyin
AU - Sun, Renjin
AU - Hochman, Gal
AU - Li, Hui
PY - 2018/7/15
Y1 - 2018/7/15
N2 - Increasing energy demand and the associated environmental pressures have ignited the Chinese government's concerns regarding energy conservation. Using provincial-level panel data covering the period of 2000–2015, this study first identifies the drivers of energy intensity across China's regions, employing a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity. Based on the estimation results and scenario analysis, this study forecasts the possible energy conservation potential at the regional level by 2030. The panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator provides similar estimation results for the three regions: economic structure and urbanization rate are the deterministic factors increasing energy intensity, while R&D investment and relative energy price reduce it. The results of scenario analysis indicate that, under the advanced scenario, the energy conservation potential in the eastern, central, and western regions in 2030 will be 1,209.53 million tons of coal equivalent (tce), 664.23 million tce, and 774.48 million tce, respectively. At the national level, the advanced scenario can save 2,648.24 million tce of energy consumption by 2030, accounting for 43.3% of the energy demand under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Finally, these findings offer several targeted policy suggestions for reducing energy intensity and promoting energy conservation potential at the national and regional levels.
AB - Increasing energy demand and the associated environmental pressures have ignited the Chinese government's concerns regarding energy conservation. Using provincial-level panel data covering the period of 2000–2015, this study first identifies the drivers of energy intensity across China's regions, employing a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity. Based on the estimation results and scenario analysis, this study forecasts the possible energy conservation potential at the regional level by 2030. The panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator provides similar estimation results for the three regions: economic structure and urbanization rate are the deterministic factors increasing energy intensity, while R&D investment and relative energy price reduce it. The results of scenario analysis indicate that, under the advanced scenario, the energy conservation potential in the eastern, central, and western regions in 2030 will be 1,209.53 million tons of coal equivalent (tce), 664.23 million tce, and 774.48 million tce, respectively. At the national level, the advanced scenario can save 2,648.24 million tce of energy consumption by 2030, accounting for 43.3% of the energy demand under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Finally, these findings offer several targeted policy suggestions for reducing energy intensity and promoting energy conservation potential at the national and regional levels.
KW - China
KW - Energy conservation potential
KW - Energy intensity
KW - Regional analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85047782161&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85047782161&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.053
DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.053
M3 - Article
VL - 155
SP - 782
EP - 795
JO - Energy
JF - Energy
SN - 0360-5442
ER -