Modeling all-cause mortality: Projections of the impact of smoking cessation based on the NHEFS

Louise B. Russell, Jeffrey L. Carson, William C. Taylor, Edwin Milan, Achintan Dey, Radha Jagannathan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives. A model that relates clinical risk factors to subsequent mortality was used to simulate the impact of smoking cessation. Methods. Survivor functions derived from multivariate hazard regressions fitted to data from the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) Epidemiologic Follow-up Study, a longitudinal survey of a representative sample of US adults, were used to project deaths from all causes. Results. Validation tests showed that the hazard regressions agreed with the risk relationships reported by others, that reported deaths for baseline risk factors closely matched observed mortality, and that the projections attributed deaths to the appropriate levels of important risk factors. Projections of the impact of smoking cessation showed that the number of cumulative deaths would be 15% lower after 5 years and 11% lower after 20 years. Conclusions. The model produced realistic projections of the effects of risk factor modification of subsequent mortality in adults. Comparison of the projections for smoking cessation with estimates of the risk attributable to smoking published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that cessation could capture most of the benefit possible from eliminating smoking.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)630-636
Number of pages7
JournalAmerican journal of public health
Volume88
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1998

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Smoking Cessation
Mortality
Nutrition Surveys
Smoking
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
Longitudinal Studies
Survivors
Cause of Death

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Russell, Louise B. ; Carson, Jeffrey L. ; Taylor, William C. ; Milan, Edwin ; Dey, Achintan ; Jagannathan, Radha. / Modeling all-cause mortality : Projections of the impact of smoking cessation based on the NHEFS. In: American journal of public health. 1998 ; Vol. 88, No. 4. pp. 630-636.
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Modeling all-cause mortality : Projections of the impact of smoking cessation based on the NHEFS. / Russell, Louise B.; Carson, Jeffrey L.; Taylor, William C.; Milan, Edwin; Dey, Achintan; Jagannathan, Radha.

In: American journal of public health, Vol. 88, No. 4, 04.1998, p. 630-636.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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