TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US
AU - Park, Sang Woo
AU - Messacar, Kevin
AU - Douek, Daniel C.
AU - Spaulding, Alicen B.
AU - Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors
PY - 2024/3
Y1 - 2024/3
N2 - Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.
AB - Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.
KW - COVID- 19
KW - Enterovirus D68
KW - Non-pharmaceutical intervention
KW - infectious disease moeling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85180603973&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85180603973&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736
DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736
M3 - Article
C2 - 38118274
SN - 1755-4365
VL - 46
JO - Epidemics
JF - Epidemics
M1 - 100736
ER -