Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front

A. J. Miller; P. M. Poulain; A. R. Robinson; H. G. Arango; W. G. Leslie; A. Warn-Varnas

doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc00791

Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front

A. J. Miller, P. M. Poulain, A. R. Robinson, H. G. Arango, W. G. Leslie, A. Warn-Varnas

School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Marine & Coastal Sciences

Rutgers, The State University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Using initialization and validation conditions from hydrographic surveys, shipboard quasi-geostrophic model forecasts executed in real time are evaluated for quantitative skill in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient and rms error. The forecasts correlate with validating observations, yielding anomaly correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.80, which beat persistence-of-day-zero forecasts by 0.07-0.30. The forecast fields of stream function are also used to diagnose the physical processes of the frontal current variations. Energetic diagnostics clearly reveal that the frontal current evolution is controlled by baroclinic instability processes. -from Authors

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	10,833-10,849
Journal	Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume	100
Issue number	C6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/95jc00791
State	Published - 1995

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
Forestry
Oceanography
Aquatic Science
Ecology
Water Science and Technology
Soil Science
Geochemistry and Petrology
Earth-Surface Processes
Atmospheric Science
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
Space and Planetary Science
Palaeontology

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title = "Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front",

abstract = "Using initialization and validation conditions from hydrographic surveys, shipboard quasi-geostrophic model forecasts executed in real time are evaluated for quantitative skill in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient and rms error. The forecasts correlate with validating observations, yielding anomaly correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.80, which beat persistence-of-day-zero forecasts by 0.07-0.30. The forecast fields of stream function are also used to diagnose the physical processes of the frontal current variations. Energetic diagnostics clearly reveal that the frontal current evolution is controlled by baroclinic instability processes. -from Authors",

author = "Miller, {A. J.} and Poulain, {P. M.} and Robinson, {A. R.} and Arango, {H. G.} and Leslie, {W. G.} and A. Warn-Varnas",

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T1 - Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front

AU - Miller, A. J.

AU - Poulain, P. M.

AU - Robinson, A. R.

AU - Arango, H. G.

AU - Leslie, W. G.

AU - Warn-Varnas, A.

PY - 1995

Y1 - 1995

N2 - Using initialization and validation conditions from hydrographic surveys, shipboard quasi-geostrophic model forecasts executed in real time are evaluated for quantitative skill in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient and rms error. The forecasts correlate with validating observations, yielding anomaly correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.80, which beat persistence-of-day-zero forecasts by 0.07-0.30. The forecast fields of stream function are also used to diagnose the physical processes of the frontal current variations. Energetic diagnostics clearly reveal that the frontal current evolution is controlled by baroclinic instability processes. -from Authors

AB - Using initialization and validation conditions from hydrographic surveys, shipboard quasi-geostrophic model forecasts executed in real time are evaluated for quantitative skill in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient and rms error. The forecasts correlate with validating observations, yielding anomaly correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.80, which beat persistence-of-day-zero forecasts by 0.07-0.30. The forecast fields of stream function are also used to diagnose the physical processes of the frontal current variations. Energetic diagnostics clearly reveal that the frontal current evolution is controlled by baroclinic instability processes. -from Authors

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JO - Journal of Geophysical Research

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research

IS - C6

ER -

Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front

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