Abstract
The National Airspace System (NAS) in the United States is an increasingly complex array of commercial and general aviation aircraft, rotorcraft, airports, unmanned aircraft systems, reusable launch vehicles, air traffic control, weather services, and maintenance operations, among others. The Next Generation (NextGen) Air Transportation System (ATS) or NGATS involves a transformation of the entire national air transportation system to meet future demands and avoid gridlock in the sky and at airports. The goal of NextGen is to increase the capacity of the NAS, as well as its efficiency and safety through the use of leading edge technologies. The increased system complexity necessitates the application of systematic safety risk analysis methods to understand risk factors and to eliminate, reduce, or mitigate them where possible. In this paper, a safety risk modeling approach is presented that integrates a structured aviation hazard taxonomy with a probabilistic Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The risk modeling approach initiates with a hypothetical futuristic scenario where the hazardous elements from the categories of Vehicle, Operations, Airmen and the Environment are identified. The modeling procedure then involves the construction of a BBN that includes proposed NextGen mitigations. Sensitivity analyses of risk factors and mitigation effects are demonstrated using the modeling approach with a wake vortex encounter scenario for a super-heavy transport aircraft.
| Original language | American English |
|---|---|
| Pages | 140-149 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| State | Published - 2012 |
| Event | 62nd IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2012 - Orlando, FL, United States Duration: May 19 2012 → May 23 2012 |
Other
| Other | 62nd IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2012 |
|---|---|
| Country/Territory | United States |
| City | Orlando, FL |
| Period | 5/19/12 → 5/23/12 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Keywords
- Bayesian belief networks
- Hazard and risk modeling
- Nextgen