Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool: Test case for depleted uranium (DU)

TY - JOUR

T1 - Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool

T2 - Test case for depleted uranium (DU)

AU - Fan, Ming

AU - Thongsri, Tepwitoon

AU - Axe, Lisa

AU - Tyson, Trevor A.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the US Army Sustainable Green Manufacturing program through the National Defense Center for Environmental Excellence (Contract DAAE30-98-C-1050).

PY - 2005/6

Y1 - 2005/6

N2 - A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites.

AB - A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites.

KW - Bioavailability

KW - Depleted uranium

KW - Ecological risk assessment

KW - Monte Carlo simulation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=19444373525&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=19444373525&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2004.12.004

DO - 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2004.12.004

M3 - Article

C2 - 15910910

SN - 0045-6535

VL - 60

SP - 111

EP - 125

JO - Chemosphere

JF - Chemosphere

IS - 1

ER -